2026 - THE MACHINE'S REPORT CARD (week 28)

TrackSmart AI: Cumulative Performance Report - NYRA & Regional Tracks Reporting Period: December 26, 2025 – July 12, 2026

Track: Belmont at the Big A (BAQ) / Finger Lakes (FL) / Aqueduct (AQU) / Laurel Park (LRL) / Santa Anita Park (SA) / Penn National (PEN) / Saratoga Harness (SARH) / Woodbine (WO) / Saratoga (SAR)

Executive Summary: July 12 Update

Volume Expansion: The tracking dataset has grown to 1199 total races with the addition of 62 races run across Finger Lakes and Saratoga from July 6 through July
Strike Rate Resilience: The cumulative Top 4 Strike Rate shifted slightly but maintained a highly consistent 77.4% (928 for 1199). The AI model delivered an exceptional early week at Finger Lakes, highlighted by a flawless 100% Top 4 hit rate on July 8 (8 for 8), while managing extreme variance and chaos results during Saratoga's highly competitive late-week cards.
Value Normalization: The Average Payout for AI hits remained perfectly stabilized at ~$7.79. Deep value identification continued to anchor the week, capturing substantial payouts like Malibu Smart ($28.20) on July 12, After Taxes (IRE) ($18.72) on July 9, Love Thyself ($14.00) on July 8, and Movin' On Up ($12.62) on July
System Integrity and Updates: The automated scratch adjustment protocol continued to be extremely lucrative. Field alternates filling vacated positions seamlessly absorbed scratch volume, directly bumping up alternates into winning positions and securing payouts like Movin' On Up ($12.62) on July 11, Karey ($9.44) on July 9, and Carol Said No ($5.20) on July 8 with no drop in top-end confidence.

Daily Performance Breakdown

Date	Track	Top 4 Strike Rate	Total Races	1st Pick	2nd Pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick	Avg Payout (AI Hits)
Prev. Totals	MULTI	77.9%	1137	342	230	205	109	~$7.81
July 6	FL	87.5%	8	5	2	0	0	$4.36
July 7	FL	85.7%	7	4	1	0	1	$6.53
July 8	FL	100.0%	8	2	3	3	0	$7.81
July 9	SAR	77.8%	9	3	3	1	0	$8.19
July 10	SAR	40.0%	10	0	0	4	0	$6.81
July 11	SAR	54.5%	11	2	2	1	1	$6.86
July 12	SAR	44.4%	9	1	1	0	2	$13.35
NEW TOTALS	MULTI	77.4%	1199	359	242	214	113	~$7.79

(Note: Prior totals reflect cumulative data up to July 5. Daily breakdowns from previous reports have been condensed into the Prev. Totals row. Live scratch protocols dynamically shifted runners up in rankings across multiple races this week, securing numerous top-tier hits.)

Winner Distribution by Rank (Cumulative)

AI Rank

Wins

% of Hits

Trend Note

Top Pick

359

38.7%

Pace Flow Precision: Kept catching steady winners with solid pace projection. Successfully mapped out "Honest Paces" and fast dirt profiles (TSE1/TSE2 metrics), dominating outright at Finger Lakes early in the week.

2nd Selection

242

26.1%

Class Elevation & Adaptability: Remained a highly reliable choice, providing an excellent safety net during projected meltdowns and heavily capitalizing on scratch

promotions (e.g., Karey on July 9).

3rd Selection

214

23.1%

Alternate Protection: Consistently sniffing out favorable setups and deep values. Benefited immensely from class drops and "Trouble-Trip Rebound" angles as seen across Finger Lakes fields.

4th Selection

113

12.2%

Rebounding Safety Net: Capitalized heavily on chaos outcomes and automated scratch-bumping rules, stepping up to capture mid-to-high payouts like Movin' On Up ($12.62) and Malibu Smart ($28.20).

Cumulative Statistics Summary

Metric Stat Description
Overall Accuracy	77.4%	(928/1199 Races) The AI has successfully placed the winner in its Top 4 selections in 928 of the 1199 recorded races.
Top 2 Accuracy	50.1%	(601/1199 Races) The primary or secondary choice remains highly reliable, winning in just over half of all modeled races.
Avg Payout	~$7.79	The average payout remained incredibly stabilized, driven by strong fundamental value hits and chaos-surviving alternates successfully balancing out formful early-week cards.

Aggregate Observations: July 6 - July 12 Insights

Finger Lakes Dominance: The AI engine delivered spectacular, near-flawless execution at Finger Lakes, successfully identifying 7-of-8 winners on July 6 and sweeping the card with a perfect 8-for-8 performance on July

The model accurately recognized fast dirt profiles and early presser biases while masterfully navigating basement class drops (TPN Prime dominance).

Scratch Failsafe Protocol Brilliance: The AI's Alternate Selection protocol proved its immense value again this week. Automatically bumping up alternates to fill gaps created by late scratches cleanly absorbed the volume and secured wins for horses like Carol Said No (July 8), Karey (July 9), and Movin' On Up (July 11), maximizing value even when morning-line favorites vanished.
Pace Mapping & Track Geometry: The AI's flow analysis was incredibly spot-on. "Lone Speed" and "Bias Survivor" models successfully identified extreme inside biases (e.g., Cold Spell and Soaring High on July 9). The pace meltdown logic correctly shielded off-the-pace contenders and successfully identified vulnerable early speed that succumbed to duels throughout the week.
Saratoga Chaos & Volatility: The model encountered high-variance chaos fields at Saratoga later in the week, particularly with 2-year-old maiden sprints and unexposed turf shippers. While race shape projections (like clustered front flights hitting a stamina wall) were often highly accurate, the AI occasionally fell victim to selecting the wrong beneficiary when deep closers failed to fire and mid-pack stalkers took the prize instead.
Model Adjustments & Blind Spots: To better capture late-week volatility, adjustments are recommended. Expanding the variance tolerance for mid-priced turf stalkers, relaxing True Speed (TS) ceiling restrictions for lightly raced improvers holding TPN Prime #1 shields, and heavily weighting outside "Clear Air" draws in juvenile sprints will help elevate fringe contenders into top-tier spots during extreme chaos scenarios.